The latest Asia-Pacific tourism outlook points to a decisive shift from post-pandemic recovery to sustained expansion, with clear winners and losers emerging as destinations compete for international travellers amid geopolitical uncertainty and changing consumer behaviour.
According to the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) and the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, international visitor arrivals (IVAs) across 39 Asia-Pacific destinations are projected to climb to 714.9 million in 2026, rise to 758.8 million in 2027, and reach 789.2 million by 2028, equivalent to 115.6 per cent of pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
The forecast suggests that Asia-Pacific tourism has entered a new growth cycle, although the pace of expansion is expected to vary sharply between destinations.
Vietnam is forecast to be the region’s fastest-growing major tourism destination over the next two years, with international arrivals expected to surge by 31.2 per cent between 2025 and 2027 to 27.8 million visitors. It is followed by Macao (19.4 per cent), Japan (15.8 per cent), Hong Kong SAR (13.9 per cent), Türkiye (12.7 per cent) and Malaysia (11.6 per cent), reflecting stronger air connectivity, increased tourism investment and rising demand.
In contrast, several of Asia’s traditional tourism giants are expected to witness slower growth. China, while retaining its position as the region’s largest destination with a projected 157.8 million international arrivals in 2027, is forecast to grow by only 2.2 per cent over 2025 levels. Thailand, long one of Asia’s tourism powerhouses, is projected to record growth of 5.2 per cent, while the United States is expected to expand by 9 per cent, indicating that mature destinations may face increasing competitive pressure from emerging markets.
The report also highlights a widening recovery gap across the region. Mongolia is expected to lead the post-pandemic rebound by 2028, with visitor arrivals reaching 177.8 per cent of 2019 levels. Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam and Sri Lanka are also projected to significantly outperform their pre-pandemic benchmarks.
However, the recovery remains uneven. Thailand is expected to regain its 2019 visitor levels only by 2028, while the United States, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Myanmar and several Pacific island destinations are likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels throughout the forecast period.
Of the 39 destinations covered by the study, 27 are expected to exceed their 2019 visitor arrivals by 2027, rising to 30 by 2028, underscoring the uneven nature of the region’s tourism revival.
On the demand side, China is forecast to remain the dominant outbound tourism market. Chinese travellers are expected to generate nearly 127 million outbound visitor arrivals across Asia-Pacific in 2027, up about 18 per cent from 2025. The United States will remain the second-largest source market with 65.2 million outbound trips, also representing growth of about 18 per cent. South Korea, Canada and Mexico are expected to contribute significantly to regional travel demand, albeit at varying growth rates.
Industry analysts say the data provides an increasingly important roadmap for airlines, airports, hotel operators and tourism investors planning capacity expansion over the next three years.
PATA Chief Executive Officer Noor Ahmad Hamid said the tourism landscape is becoming more volatile despite the strong recovery trajectory. “Change is no longer an occasional disruption; it is the new constant,” he said, adding that destinations able to adapt quickly to changing traveller preferences and market conditions will be better positioned to capture future growth.
The report warns that several headwinds could temper the pace of expansion. Rising geopolitical tensions, volatile energy markets, higher aviation costs, inflation and persistent cost-of-living pressures could dampen discretionary travel, particularly among middle-income and long-haul travellers.
At the same time, expanding airline networks, airport infrastructure upgrades, improved visa policies and stronger intra-Asian travel demand are expected to provide significant support for regional tourism growth.
Professor Haiyan Song, Director of the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, said destinations would need to remain agile as market conditions continue to evolve.
The mid-year update provides annual and quarterly visitor forecasts for 39 Asia-Pacific destinations and is expected to serve as a key planning tool for governments, tourism boards, airlines and investors navigating the region’s next phase of tourism growth.
