Author: R Suryamurthy

The United States and Bangladesh on Sunday signed a bilateral trade agreement that offers limited tariff relief for Bangladeshi textile and apparel exports, but only in proportion to the use of US-origin cotton and man-made fibre inputs. The new arrangement, analysts say, could reshape sourcing decisions and intensify competitive pressures for the world’s second-largest garment exporter. Under the agreement, a general reciprocal tariff rate of 19 per cent will apply to Bangladeshi goods entering the United States, down from sharply higher duties imposed in 2025. Zero-tariff access will be available only for a defined volume of textile and apparel exports,…

NITI Aayog’s scenario studies on Viksit Bharat and Net Zero place financing, not technology or ambition, at the centre of India’s long-term development challenge. The government’s own modelling shows that achieving developed-economy status by 2047 while progressing towards Net Zero emissions by 2070 will require an unprecedented $22-23 trillion in cumulative investment, fundamentally reshaping India’s relationship with domestic savings, global capital markets and climate-finance institutions. The Financing Needs report (Volume 9) leaves little room for ambiguity: India cannot finance its transition alone. Even under optimistic assumptions on growth, savings and efficiency, the study estimates a financing gap of $6-6.5 trillion,…

India’s trade agreement with the United States, under which Washington will cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from levels that had effectively climbed to as high as 50 per cent, is being read in New Delhi, corporate boardrooms and global markets as far more than a routine trade reset. Economists and policymakers see it as a strategic inflexion point that reshapes India’s export outlook, strengthens its manufacturing push and subtly recalibrates its geopolitical positioning at a moment when the global trading system itself is fragmenting. The agreement, announced by US President Donald Trump following a call with…

Why the Commission Maths Is Turning Electoral India’s fiscal transfer system, long treated as a technocratic exercise best left to Finance Commissions and finance secretaries, is edging quietly towards the political frontline. As several major states prepare for Assembly elections in 2026, the arithmetic of tax devolution is beginning to seep into campaign narratives. In Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam, early signalling from political parties, policy briefings and formal submissions to the Sixteenth Finance Commission (XVI-FC) suggest that a once-abstract issue is acquiring electoral bite: for every rupee a state contributes to the Union’s revenue pool, how much…

The Union Budget for 2026–27 marks a decisive attempt to simplify legacy tax provisions, plug interpretational loopholes and redirect household savings into more transparent, long-term financial channels. From provident funds and Sovereign Gold Bonds to overseas Indian investors, the proposals collectively signal a shift towards rule-based clarity over discretionary exceptions. For salaried employees, small savers, gold investors and the Indian diaspora, the changes will have tangible, everyday implications. Provident Funds: Ending Legacy Rules, Not Tax Benefits For millions of salaried Indians, the provident fund is the backbone of retirement security. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has now proposed a comprehensive overhaul…

India’s economy has entered an unusual and potentially precarious phase. Strong growth, disciplined macroeconomic management and improving domestic fundamentals are no longer sufficient to guarantee external stability. That is the central warning of the Economic Survey 2025-26, which argues that the global economic order is undergoing a structural shift that increasingly penalises openness, success and dependence on foreign capital. Presented in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and authored by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, the Survey projects that India is well placed to sustain real GDP growth of over 7 per cent in FY26 and FY27. Public capital…

India’s proposed tariff concessions on European passenger vehicles under the India–European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA) are expected to reshape competition at the premium end of the automobile market, while having only a limited impact on overall industry volumes, according to Crisil Ratings and brokerage analyses. The agreement envisages a steep reduction in import duties on a quota of about 250,000 EU-origin passenger vehicles priced above €15,000, with tariffs falling from the current 70-110 per cent range to around 40 per cent initially and eventually to 10 per cent. Auto parts are slated to become duty-free over a five- to…

The India-European Union Free Trade Agreement has been framed as a strategic masterstroke, a claim that India can still strike ambitious trade deals with advanced economies while protecting domestic interests. Look closer, however, and the agreement reveals a familiar hierarchy. Europe walks away with immediate, bankable gains in agriculture and food exports. India walks away with exclusions, safeguards and assurances. And hanging over the entire deal is a climate regime that threatens to claw back whatever competitiveness Indian exporters think they have won. Agriculture is where this imbalance is most visible. For years, European negotiators had one overriding objective in…

The Indian political calendar in 2026 may not threaten the stability of the Union government, but it will quietly test something far more consequential: whether the Bharatiya Janata Party can still expand in a country where regional identities, linguistic pride and sub-national politics increasingly resist national homogenisation. Five Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry stand between the BJP and a long-held ambition: breaking into states where power has remained stubbornly local. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, this is not just another electoral cycle. It may well be the last clear…

India’s trade calendar is entering another make-or-break week, but the diplomacy behind it is still weighed down by a decade of defensive policymaking. The arrival of Deputy US Ambassador for Trade Rick Switzer on December 10-11 is meant to give fresh momentum to the long-pending Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Instead, it is exposing how deeply India’s negotiations with Washington—and with Brussels, London and others—have been slowed by accumulated mistrust, tariff battles and an investment regime many partners still view as unpredictable. The Ministry of External Affairs called Switzer’s trip a “familiarisation visit”, but in reality it is an attempt to…