Author: Hal Brands

By any serious reading of 2026, the belief that today’s global disorder is temporary can no longer be sustained. What we are witnessing is not a momentary disruption on the path to a new equilibrium, but the hardening of a more severe and enduring geopolitical era. Hot wars, cold wars and grey-zone coercion now exist side by side, each reinforcing the other. Rather than receding, conflict has become embedded in the structure of international politics. The war in Ukraine captures this condition with particular clarity. Russia’s campaign is no longer about territory or bargaining power. It is civilisational in intent.…