PAHALGAM CARNAGE: ONE OF THE MANY OR THE LAST ONE?
The million-dollar question is what can India do from here onwards in the field of military and kinetic dimensions.
“We must cut our all types of ties with Pakistan, including Diplomatic, Military, human, means of communication including internet, telephone, Air, land and sea lines of Communications. Declare Pakistan as our Enemy at war till such time even one terrorist or one weapon is sent across.”
By Sat Dahiya
(Military Expert and Defence Strategist)
NEW DELHI: On 22ND April 2025 at about 2 P.M. seven terrorists rolled down the wooded slopes around Baisaran Meadow, some six K.M. South East of Pahalgam the famous tourist spot of South Kashmir and one of the starting points of Amarnath Yatra with their guns blazing upon the hapless tourists. Within next one hour or so ,30 tourists from across India including two foreigners lay dead and several more injured without any reaction or response either from police, civil administration or the Armed Forces. Those killed included a naval officer, an IAF officer, and an intelligence bureau (IB) official and some common citizen, businessmen. Hindus were specifically identified, targeted and shot. The attack was well planned and executed to coincide with the visit of USA Vice President to India and Indian Prime Minister visit to Saudi Arabia, with eerie similarities to March 2000, when 36 Sikhs were massacred in cold blood by Pakistani funded, controlled and directed terrorists at Chittisinghpora, barely 35 K.M. from Pahalgam in the same district of Anantnag during the USA President Bill Clinton visit to India and Saudi Crown Prince visit to Pakistan. It has definitive Pakistan Signatures written all over this act.
SOME DETERRENT EFFECT ON TERRORISTS
This dastardly act at the behest and on the instructions of Pakistan comes in the back drop of anti-India diatribe by beleaguered Army Chief Asim Munir, singling out and targeting Hindus as well as increased terrorist violence South of Pir Panjals which including killing of Vaishno Devi Pilgrims near Raisi and some other terrorist acts at Sambha-Kathua as well as in Bhaderwah region. Instead of undertaking adequate response to have some deterrent effect on terrorists and their masters at GHQ Rawalpindi and at Aabpara, G-7 Islamabad. Some of our politicians and Raag Durbaries were thumping their chests and congratulating each other of having normalized the situation in J&K completely. Probably this loop of self-appraisal and self-appeasement prompted the decision makers to thin out the Anti-terrorist grid in Kashmir too early without fully realizing the Pakistani capability to redirect and reactivate their proxies to India at will as long as their Jihad Factories and Madrasas are alive and kicking. The Pakistan has created international Jehad Corporate structure churning out lacs of low cost Jihadis available on demand within Pakistan as well as supplied anywhere on the globe from India to Uighur/China to US to Europe to Africa to even some countries of Latin America as their thanks giving measures for Drug and weapon laundering support. Today supply is more than the demand, as a result one can see some enhanced terrorists’ activities within the boundaries of Pakistan. The Pakistan Global Jihad Corporate has some 100 plus active Companies (Tanzim) as on date available for rent a cause and few dollars to the coffers of Pakistani Generals. Of course, the supply of Jihadis into India is pro bono, it being the raison de”etre for the existence of Pakistani Generals and the Establishment of Pakistan.
NORMAL KASHMIRI SHOULD HAVE BEEN ANALYZED IN DEPTH
Another important issue is of local politicians and Political Parties having their linkages and sympathies with terrorist supporters and sympathizers within the society and more importantly the links with the agencies from across the border. Do these linkages still exist or is it possible to severe these generation old links with in years under the winds of Normalcy? Don’t forget the first batch of Kashmiri Insurgent in late Eighties were ceremonially dispatched to POK under the guidance, support and prodding of then Young CM and his political Party. Also, the issue of abrogation of Article 370, turning J&K into a union territory and its impact on the minds of normal Kashmiri should have been analysed in depth, before venturing into the field of thinning out Army Grid and revocation of AFSPA from some areas.
CHINESE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES AGAINST INDIA
The issue which needs to be studied in greater detail is the role and support of CIA, MI-6 and Chinese Intelligence agencies against India. One should not forget that it was the Pakistan which was created and voluntarily used as an instrument of choice by USA as well as UK against the fear of USSR expansion towards the warm waters of Indian Ocean. Pakistan had joined CENTO in 1959 and Baghdad Pact in 1955 along with US, UK, Turkey and others. It was in 1971 war with Pakistan that the US 7th Fleet under the leadership of Nixon and Kissinger was threatening India from Bay of Bengal. Later on, the same Henery Kissinger chose China over India to build them into a power against USSR and by connotations against India. Later in the post 71 era, China joined the Pakistani Jihadi bandwagon against India albeit with covert actions only. From Invasion of Afghanistan by USSR in December 79 till 2010 or so, Pakistan has been a close paid ally of the West which included USA and UK. The role of UK and its intelligence agency in creation of Pakistan and it getting Gilgit Baltistan and part of Kashmir (POK) are too well known to be repeated here. And these western powers in connivance with China and North Korea have awarded Pakistan to become a nuclear state. And the main linkage and connection of Pakistan with US, UK and China has been mostly through military and intelligence agencies. Though apparently the US and UK may appear to be neutral between India and Pakistan but the residual linkages of Pakistan with in Pentagon and with MI-6 and CIA may be ignored at our own peril.
THE ANSWER TO ALL THESE QUESTIONS IS EMPHATICALLY NO.
“The China Pakistan Nexus is broadly mis-understood and the challenges emanating thereof are generally inadequately addressed as seen from the situation in Indias immediate neighbourhood of Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Maldives and to some extent Sri Lanka. Since 1989 onwards there have been more than 51350 Pakistan sponsored, funded, guided and controlled terrorist related incidents in India, mainly in J&K resulting in the death of more than 15000 civilians and killing of about 7000 security personnel and what has been our response? It has been rhetorics and more rhetorics of Neenda, Kadi Neenda, Bashan’s and shouting from roof tops to teach Pakistan a lesson and politicians drawing all the mileage to garner votes and thereafter forget everything till the next one. In the tangible realms only One General Mobilization of the Army, Post Parliament attacks 2000, few surgical strikes pre 2014 and few post 2014 and one Airstrike at Balakot in 2019 and some firing at LC on and off have taken place. Have these surgical strikes, Airstrikes and firing duals at LC resulting in killing of few terrorists, few Pakistani soldiers and some civilians were adequate or these had requisite deterrent effect on Pakistan? Have they dismantled or reduced their terror infra structure? Or are they afraid or worried of red eyes or 56” chest or are they afraid of warning by our own James Bond of severing Baluchistan? Unfortunately, the answer to all these questions is emphatically No.”
ALL WENT SCOUT FREE WITH NO VISIBLE ACTION
So, the question is, will the response to Pahalgam would be any different? Or these 30 unfortunate souls would simply get added to statistics of 15000 plus already dead? Or would our Establishment wake from its slumber of indifference and act to create capabilities and capacities to deter the Generals enjoying their Scotch, Golf and Mushairas at Rawalpindi unfazed? And more importantly does the political leadership has got the capacity understand and question the Administrative, intelligence and security set up of its incompetencies and ineffectiveness’s. In the past persons like Devinder Singh responsible for Pulwama has been simply dismissed. No inquiry, no lessons learnt. People responsible for Kargil intrusion, Attack on Parliament, Mumbai Attack, attack at Raisi, Pathankot Airbase attack and many more, all went scout free with no visible action. The political leadership either doesn’t have the capabilities or the guts or both to touch the police and intelligence setup. And it may be possible that Police and intelligence functionaries handling internal intelligence tasks may be knowing far too much muck in the cupboards of political dispensation to act against them.
PAKISTANI NATIONALS WILL NOT BE PERMITTED TO TRAVEL TO INDIA
The action and response of Indian state to Pahalgam massacre has been on predictable lines so far. Apart from rhetorics from both sides, some of the actions taken by India are:
(i) The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.
(ii) The Integrated Check Post Attari will be closed with immediate effect. Those who have crossed over with valid endorsements may return through that route before 01 May 2025.
(iii) Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) visas. Any SVES visas issued in the past to Pakistani nationals are deemed cancelled. Any Pakistani national currently in India under SVES visa has 48 hours to leave India.
(iv) The Defence/Military, Naval and Air Advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi are declared Persona Non Grata. They have a week to leave India. India will be withdrawing its own Defence/Navy/Air Advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. These posts in the respective High Commissions are deemed annulled. Five support staff of the Service Advisors will also be withdrawn from both High Commissions.
(v) The overall strength of the High Commissions will be brought down to 30 from the present 55 through further reductions, to be affected by 01 May 2025.
(vi) It has also been reported that Indian Naval, Army and Air Assets have been put on high alert and some may have been mobilized.
WILL INDIA ENHANCE COVERT ACTIONS WITH IN PAKISTAN?
The response of Pakistan has been on dotted lines. They have matched rhetorics with rhetorics and all other actions on their part has been mirror image of actions taken by India. The million-dollar question is what can India do from here onwards in the field of military and kinetic dimensions? Would it be some surgical strike or Air Strikes or Naval barrage on some of the terrorist assets or upon military assets? Would India go for all-out war? Will India enhance covert actions with in Pakistan and importantly what sort of assets and capabilities India has for such tasks?
LIMITED STRIKES MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
Given the past experience and the mental makeup of decision makers, all-out war or even the limited strikes may not materialize. It may be the battle of rhetorics, diplomatic posturing and at best some limited strike here and there. However, such actions are not enough to change the behaviour of Pakistan Establishment. There has to be a paradigm shift towards complete India Approach to restrain Pakistan. Prior to that we got to understand the motive and psyche at large of Pakistan, its establishment and People at large.
MUSLIM IS A PRODUCT OF SEVENTY YEARS OF FUNDAMENTALIST, EXTREMIST…
“Since its inception in late 1930s within India and its physical creation in 1947, the anti-Hindu and Anti-India mindset has been predominant factor in determining their all actions and inactions not only towards India but as the general way of life. Anti India sentiment is the reason for its existence and cause for the survival of Pakistan as a Nation, as a country and as a people. They have acted unapologetically, unhindered and single-mindedly against India, since 1947, be it Wars of 1948, 1965 and 1971 or the Kargil Intrusion or supporting Khalistani Movement for a decade or Kashmir Terrorism for last 35 years or stroking flames in NE India or ISI terrorism in Indian Hinterland. And our response has been kneejerk and lackadaisical at best. Sometimes we talk tough and sometimes we act tough also. And most of times whatever we gain in battlefield we squander on negotiating tables. But mostly, we get drawn into nostalgia of past, thinking that the Pakistanis are our blood brothers separated just 70 years ago. It is nonsensical to think so. The Pakistani Muslim is entirely different from Indian Muslims today in his thoughts and actions. The average Pakistani Muslim is a product of seventy years of fundamentalist, extremist and ant India and Anti Hindu education system based upon hatred brainwashed into some sort of a caricature of 7th century Arabian warrior. Just have a look at their school syllabus and things would be clear.”
WE CAN’T CHANGE OUR NEIGHBOURS BUT…
There the children from their formative years are taught to be anti-Hindu, anti-India and be extremist in thoughts. And whatever deficiency of being Anti India is needed; it is topped up by Madrasas and SM indoctrination. In that sense the Pakistani Muslim mindset is entirely different from the mindset of majority of Indian Muslims of today who have been getting assimilated into the fabric of Secular society. But most of us tend to see Pakistani Muslims as a copy of Indian Muslim in spite of evidence available to the contrary and make the mistake in our dealing with Pakistan. We got to see them as a nation as a people and as a neighbour who has been at war with us, with our values and our system and with our people including 20 crore Indian Muslims ever since 1947. We can’t change our neighbours but definitely we can change their geography, shape and size so as not to be a nuisance and a thorn in our guts as it has been for last 70 years. Even those who thinks the Pakistani Muslims as their brothers must learn from Mahabharat- “when blood relations get strained, the meeting is often in next life only”. Therefore, there are few suggestions or points to effectively deal with Pakistan.
“PAKISTAN SPONSORED ACTIVITY IN INDIA”
First of all, we must cut our all types of ties with Pakistan, including Diplomatic, Military, human, means of communication including internet, telephone, Air, land and sea lines of Communications. Declare Pakistan as our Enemy at war till such time even one terrorist or one weapon is sent across. Whenever there is any Pakistan sponsored activity in India, we should target their masterminds. Like in this case their COAS and DG ISI should be taken out by overt/covert means.
Have economic war on Pakistan by targeting their export and imports, may be at some cost to us.
Global Psychological and media warfare against Pakistan.
Pay back Pakistan in the same coin as it has been doing to us, like fake currency, drugs, weapons, Support Baluchistan, Sindh and NWFP as independent countries with full diplomatic, economic and Military support. Exploit numerous fault lines of Pakistan. And be prepared for opportune military action and intervention at right moment.
Pakistan has been a nuisance and a stone around our neck. We can get this dead stone out of our neck by breaking it into smaller pieces. And by the way, we have the means and wherewithal to do so provided we have the will and the resolve. Otherwise let the things continue as hither to for—supper night carry on.
(The writer is retired brigadier)
