On May 20, 2025, Pakistani Army spokesperson Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhary echoed Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed’s threat, stating, “If you stop our water, we will stop your breathing,” in response to India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
New Delhi: India’s Operation Sindoor, launched on May 7, 2025, to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoJK) following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, has entered a bold new phase. Initially targeting nine terror camps linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, the operation eliminated over 100 terrorists, delivering a severe blow to Pakistan-backed militancy. However, recent statements from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, coupled with provocative rhetoric from Pakistan’s military leadership, suggest that India is now prepared for direct, decisive action against Pakistan’s state and military apparatus if terrorism persists. The Pakistani Army, led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, appears to have miscalculated, exposing its complicity in terrorism and inviting India’s wrath, with the Indus Waters Treaty suspension and nuclear bluff-calling signaling a redefined strategic posture.
India’s Escalatory Stance: A New Normal
Prime Minister Modi’s May 22, 2025, address in Bikaner, Rajasthan, marked a paradigm shift in India’s counter-terrorism doctrine. Modi declared Operation Sindoor a “new era” for India, vowing to target not just terrorists but their state sponsors, explicitly rejecting Pakistan’s nuclear posturing. “The world has seen what happens when ‘sindoor’ turns into ‘barood’ (gunpowder),” he said, referencing the Pahalgam attack where terrorists killed 26 civilians, targeting Hindus and wiping sindoor from widows’ foreheads. Modi emphasized three pillars: decisive retaliation, no tolerance for nuclear blackmail, and no distinction between terrorists and their governmental backers. His warning that Pakistan’s Rahim Yar Khan airbase is “in ICU” and that India will dictate the “time, place, and manner” of future strikes underscores a policy of escalation dominance.
Jaishankar’s Global Exposé of Pakistan’s Terror Nexus
Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, during his May 2025 Netherlands visit, unequivocally implicated Pakistan’s state and military in terrorism. In an interview with De Volkskrant, Jaishankar dismissed denials of Pakistan’s involvement, stating, “The most notorious terrorists on the UN sanctions list, like Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar, operate openly in Pakistan. The army is up to its neck in it.” He likened Pakistan’s terror camps to a hypothetical military base in Amsterdam, questioning how any government could claim ignorance. Speaking to Dutch broadcaster NOS, Jaishankar affirmed that Operation Sindoor remains active, with a clear message: “If terrorists are in Pakistan, we will kill them there.” His remarks, tying the Pahalgam attack to Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir’s “extreme religious outlook,” have galvanized international scrutiny of Pakistan’s role as a terror hub.
Pakistan’s Misstep: Asim Munir’s Provocative Rhetoric
Pakistan’s military, under Field Marshal Asim Munir, has fueled tensions with inflammatory statements. On May 20, 2025, Pakistani Army spokesperson Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhary echoed Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed’s threat, stating, “If you stop our water, we will stop your breathing,” in response to India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. This treaty, critical for 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural water, was paused post-Pahalgam, with Jaishankar stating it will remain in abeyance until Pakistan halts cross-border terrorism. Munir’s promotion to Field Marshal, announced May 21, 2025, is seen as a reward for his aggressive stance, despite Pakistan’s military setbacks during Operation Sindoor, including damage to nine airbases and substantial casualties. India views these provocations as a desperate attempt to rally domestic support amid economic ruin, with Pakistan’s GDP growth at a mere 2.4% in 2024, per the IMF.
Did Pakistan’s Army Miscalculate?
Pakistan’s military appears to have underestimated India’s resolve. Former Indian High Commissioner G. Parthasarthy likened Munir’s actions to the “mistakes” of former Pakistan Army Chief Pervez Musharraf, who misjudged India’s response during the 1999 Kargil War. Munir’s April 16, 2025, speech endorsing the Two-Nation Theory and anti-Hindu rhetoric is believed to have incited the Pahalgam attackers, who targeted victims based on religion. India’s intelligence, as cited by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, confirms Munir’s ISI background and his orchestration of the 2019 Pulwama attack, suggesting a pattern of provocation. Pakistan’s retaliatory drone and missile attacks post-Sindoor, neutralized by India’s air defenses, further exposed its military’s limitations, with Indian Navy’s forward posture in the Arabian Sea threatening Pakistan’s economic lifeline at Karachi.
Is India Preparing for Direct Action?
India’s preparations for direct action are evident in its military and diplomatic moves. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, on May 18, 2025, stated that Operation Sindoor is ongoing, with strikes reaching “deep into Rawalpindi,” the Pakistani Army’s headquarters. The Indian Air Force’s upgraded air defense systems, including S-400 units, neutralized Pakistani drones over Jammu and Punjab, while satellite imagery revealed extensive damage to terror camps in Bahawalpur and Muridke. Modi’s May 13 speech outlined a doctrine where future terror acts will be treated as “acts of war,” potentially targeting Pakistan’s military infrastructure, including sites like Kirana Hills, linked to nuclear storage. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, coupled with Modi’s assertion that “water and blood cannot flow together,” adds economic pressure, with Pakistan facing a projected 15% agricultural output drop by 2026, per a World Bank estimate.
Trump’s Mediation Confusion and India’s Rebuttal
U.S. President Donald Trump’s May 10, 2025, claim of mediating a ceasefire caused a stir, prompting Congress to demand a parliamentary session. Jaishankar clarified that the ceasefire, agreed upon by India and Pakistan’s DGMOs, was a bilateral “understanding” without U.S. involvement, a stance echoed by Vice President JD Vance’s remark that the conflict is “none of America’s business.” Modi’s Bikaner speech rebuffed third-party mediation, insisting Kashmir is a bilateral issue, a position reinforced by India’s diplomatic offensive, with seven delegations briefing 32 countries on Pakistan’s terror links. This has isolated Pakistan, with even allies like China offering only muted support.
What Lies Ahead?
If Pakistan, under Munir’s leadership, sponsors another terror attack, India’s response could be unprecedented. Jaishankar’s NOS interview signaled a policy of preemptive strikes: “The operation continues because it sends a message that an attack like April 22 will have consequences.” Military historian Shiv Kunal Verma has called Munir a “war criminal,” urging India to maintain pressure, including a potential naval blockade off Karachi to choke Pakistan’s trade. A 2025 ORF survey indicates 72% of Indians support direct military action against Pakistan’s army if terrorism persists, reflecting public backing for Modi’s stance. Pakistan’s nuclear threats, dismissed by Modi as a “bogey,” face skepticism, with Defence Minister Singh questioning the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and advocating IAEA oversight. Should Pakistan misstep, India’s multi-domain dominance—land, air, naval, and cyber—could deliver a crippling blow, potentially reshaping South Asian geopolitics.
