>> Oath, Rift and Merger Claim
When Sunetra Pawar took oath as Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister on January 30, three days after her husband Ajit Pawar, then deputy chief minister, died in a plane crash, her father-in-law Sharad Pawar was visibly upset. He told reporters earlier the same day that she had not informed him about her swearing-in. Pawar also claimed that Ajit, his nephew, had agreed to the unification of both the factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). “He was going to announce the merger on February 12,” Pawar said.
Ajit was heading the NCP while Pawar was chief of the NCP (SP). They had contested the municipal corporation elections in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, held on January 15, on a common symbol, the Analogue Clock, the symbol of the NCP.
Pawar’s statement created a flutter in the political circles within minutes. His supporters started backing his claims. Maharashtra NCP president Shashikant Shinde released a video on social media showing Ajit in a meeting with Pawar, Shinde and senior NCP (SP) leaders, including Jayant Patil, Rajesh Tope, Harshwardhan Patil and Rohit Pawar. Shinde claimed that the video was shot on January 17, a day after the NCP lost the municipal elections. Everyone present at the meeting, except Rohit Pawar, backed Pawar’s claim on the proposed merger. “I will clear my stand and produce evidence on the merger plan on February 9,” said Rohit Pawar, the grand-nephew of Sharad Pawar.
Pawar’s supporters started targeting Sunetra on social media over the “hurry” in taking the oath. Their common grudge was that “she should have waited till the 13-day mourning period was over”. They alleged that she was working under the pressure of the BJP. In Maharashtra, starting any new work within 13 days of a family member’s death is considered inappropriate.
The scene changed by the evening of January 30 when Sunetra was inducted into the state cabinet. Her firm stand despite the criticism helped her gain sympathy. She was handed over two of Ajit’s three portfolios, excise and sports, but not the plum finance.
>> Punctured Plan
Political observers believe that Sunetra’s ministerial berth has punctured the NCP’s merger plan. “Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare are not in the mood to work with Sharad Pawar and his daughter Supriya Sule again,” said Hemant Desai, a political commentator. “They can remain politically relevant only if they maintain a separate identity.”
Most of the NCP leaders believe that Sunetra has sent a powerful message that she was independent enough to make political decisions after the demise of her husband. Sunetra comes from a powerful political family. Her brother Padmasinh Patil was an influential politician from Dharashiv and a trusted aide of Pawar. As a Rajya Sabha member for a year, Sunetra has limited experience of the political complexities in the state. However, she is well aware of Pawar’s political moves. She knows well that Pawar will install Supriya Sule as the party chief if she agrees to the merger. “We have clearly stated that Sunetratai will become the national president if both parties are unified,” said Dharmarao Baba Atram, a prominent NCP leader. “If this condition is not fulfilled, there will be no merger.”
The NCP has 43 members in the Maharashtra Assembly, whereas NCP (SP) has 10. If they are unified, the NCP will be in a position to stake a claim on two more ministerial berths: one cabinet minister and another minister of state. The ministerial berths have been allocated based on the Mahayuti partners’ strength. With 132 MLAs, the BJP has 20 berths, followed by 12 for the Shiv Sena (54 MLAs) and 10 for the NCP (43 MLAs). There is speculation that Jayant Patil of NCP (SP) could be a frontrunner for the post of Finance Minister if the unification happens. A veteran who has presented nine budgets, he also has good equations with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.
The NCP leaders, however, have virtually dismissed the idea of the merger. “Ajitdada never discussed the merger plans with us. I don’t think there is any truth in that,” said Hassan Mushrif, the minister for Rural Development.
Sensing the mood, Pawar said on February 4 that nothing concrete was decided on the merger proposal. “Ajit Pawar and Jayant Patil were discussing the plan. That’s it,” he told reporters.
>> BJP’s Aggressive Show
The late Ajit Pawar had maintained his secular credentials even after joining hands with the Hindutva-oriented BJP. He was trying to keep the Muslim community within the party fold. Interestingly, all three NCP councillors in Mumbai are Muslim. Ajit had maintained a power balance with his counterpart Eknath Shinde and nurtured a close friendship with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. His seniority had an imprint on the cabinet’s decisions. No decision was taken without his consent.
Political observers believe that the power pendulum may shift towards the BJP in Ajit Pawar’s absence. The NCP ministers are unlikely to raise their voices of dissent in cabinet meetings in front of the ever-dominating Fadnavis. “Amit Shah will run the NCP henceforth,” said Sanjay Raut, the Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson. “Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare don’t have the guts to oppose the BJP on any subject.” Tatkare refuted the allegation. “We are with the Mahayuti but we know how to run our party,” he said.
On the political front, the BJP has established itself as Maharashtra’s largest political party. It won 23 out of 29 municipal corporations and 215 out of 278 municipal councils in January. The election for 12 Zila Parishads is scheduled for February 7. The remaining 23 parishads are likely to go for polls whenever the Supreme Court gives its clearance. There will be no election in the state until the next Lok Sabha polls, which are expected to take place in April-May 2029.
The BJP has planned to focus on strengthening its organisation in the next three years. It is likely to focus on areas of western Maharashtra and Konkan, where its organisation is not as strong as it is in the rest of the state. In Konkan, which has five Lok Sabha and 15 Assembly seats, the Shiv Sena is the BJP’s main rival. In western Maharashtra, which has nine Lok Sabha and 58 Assembly seats, the NCP is the main hurdle in the BJP’s expansion. In the 2024 Assembly polls, the coalition Mahayuti won 44 seats here, with the BJP emerging as the big brother with 24 seats. With Ajit Pawar at the helm, the NCP stood second in this region by winning 15 Assembly seats.
The sugar barons of western Maharashtra, Sangram Jagtap and Ashutosh Kolhe, have put their weight behind Sunetra Pawar for the NCP’s presidency. The party’s future will depend on her ability to keep the fold together and strike an effective deal with the aggressive BJP.
(Kiran D. Tare is a senior political journalist and editor of daily newspaper “The Perfect Voice”, published from Mumbai)
