The Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has two important citadels to conquer in 2026: Fort William in Kolkata and Fort George in Chennai, to politically emerge as a pan-Indian national party. During the British era, both Fort William and Fort St George epitomised the might of the Raj. In post-Independence India, the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly building is located within Fort St George.
The year 2026 is set to witness a titanic political battle between the BJP and regional forces, namely the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the M K Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). If Mamata and Stalin manage to hold on to their forts, the democratic battle in India would remain fierce, and the opposition would live to fight another day. The BJP’s track record against the Congress in both state and parliamentary polls is rather one-sided. Post-2014, the Modi-led BJP has been winning nearly 90 per cent of contests where the Congress is the main rival. With regional parties, however, the BJP has struggled in states such as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir. In Bihar, Assam, Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP has performed exceptionally well, leaning on regional parties that are now part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
In West Bengal, a Vote Vibes survey analysed by psephologist Amitabh Tiwari shows a polarised electorate: 38.3 per cent rate Mamata’s government positively, 40.6 per cent negatively. Net satisfaction is 12.6 per cent. Approval is higher among women and rises with age, lowest (31 per cent) among youth (18-24). Over 50 per cent of SC/ST communities are dissatisfied, while over half of Muslims are satisfied.
Mamata leads decisively in leadership ratings (35.4 per cent), with BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari at 20.9 per cent. Combined TMC and BJP leadership ratings are tied near 41-42 per cent. Mamata’s chief minister preference is lowest among youth (23 per cent) and highest (43-44 per cent) among older groups. Her support is lowest among STs (12 per cent) and highest among Muslims (54 per cent). Suvendu draws strong support from youth (28 per cent), SCs (33 per cent) and STs (40 per cent).
Thus, the BJP’s task in Bengal is manifold. It has an opening if women shift their way and SCs, STs and youth grow more disenchanted. However, Mamata’s personal standing and the BJP’s lack of a credible challenger give TMC an edge.
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP has been gaining ground, but it needs to team up with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which translates as the Victory Party of Tamilakam. The BJP’s problem, however, is that the Vijay-led TVK sees itself as an alternative to the DMK in the 2026 Assembly elections.
Organisationally, both the Congress and the BJP are witnessing major churn. While the BJP is becoming younger, more energetic and electorally successful, the Congress continues to appear infirm, anxious and unsuccessful. Its old guard occupies most key posts, ranging from All India Congress Committee (AICC) president Mallikarjun Kharge to departmental heads such as Jairam Ramesh (media and communications) and Salman Khurshid (foreign affairs), and nearly half the members of the Congress Working Committee (CWC), many of whom are above 70 years of age.
Despite this stagnation, the Congress is also undergoing an internal churn that could see a larger role for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. A letter appointing her as head of the AICC election management department has reportedly been typed and kept ready for weeks. Whether that letter will be released, junked or replaced by a different assignment remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, K C Venugopal has reportedly asked Rahul Gandhi to hand over “Mission Kerala” and relieve him of his responsibilities as Congress general secretary (organisation) of GSO. While uncertainty remains over Venugopal’s chief ministerial prospects in Kerala, there is near unanimity that his tenure as GSO is drawing to a close. The key question now is who will succeed him.
Following the Bihar poll debacle, however, the party leadership has shown little appetite for introspection, accountability or disciplinary action. Instead, it is engaged in a self-serving exercise to shortlist Kharge and several senior AICC functionaries for coveted Rajya Sabha berths.
An informal yet powerful “Jai Jagat” group is set to secure a significant share of Rajya Sabha seats. Leaders associated with left-of-centre politics, social justice and inclusion, including Sachin Rao, Meenakshi Natrajan, Krishna Allavaru and Bhunwar Jitendra Singh, who sign off internal communications with “Jai Jagat”, are confident of entering the Upper House.
Lateral entry, plain living and lofty principles are projected as the group’s hallmarks. Yet party leaders who have risen through the ranks tell a different story. According to seasoned Congress insiders, the minimalist lifestyle is often a smokescreen designed to impress Rahul. Stories of Diet Coke, bicycles and long train yatras circulate widely within the party.
One such anecdote involves an AICC functionary who describes herself as a “karyakarta” despite being in charge of a Congress-ruled state. Offered a Diet Coke by Rahul Gandhi, she reportedly pretended not to know how to open the can. Rahul obliged, admiring her frugal image. The same functionary prefers train travel even when it entails a 21 to 29-hour journey between Delhi and Hyderabad, a preference shared by another leader from the group.
Although the biannual Rajya Sabha elections are due only early next year, jockeying has begun in earnest, with Rahul and 10 Janpath holding all the cards and the leverage to extend patronage. Leading the list of returnees is 83-year-old Kharge, who is also the leader of the opposition in the Upper House. Since his term as Congress president runs until October 2027, the party leadership, the Gandhis, are seen as duty-bound to renominate him. Alongside Kharge, Digvijaya Singh and Shakti Singh Gohil are completing their terms in April 2026 and are keen to return. While Kharge is a certainty from Karnataka, Digvijaya, a politician among politicians, faces a challenge from Rahul protégé Meenakshi, a prominent member of the “Jai Jagat” group.
Parallel to this organisational churn is a deeper ideological churn within the Congress. Three distinct belief systems vie for influence: the enduring Nehruvian tradition of socialist-secularism; the post-1991 paradigm of liberalisation, privatisation, and globalisation (LPG); and a growing civil society philosophy that champions individual autonomy to organise, build capacity, and cultivate moral beliefs within a framework of public justice and reason.
This third ideological stream gained currency during the Sonia Gandhi-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) years through the National Advisory Council. Today, it is flourishing under Rahul, with civil society protagonists and the “Jai Jagat” group having virtually taken over large sections of the party organisation. They enjoy proximity to Rahul, act as his eyes and ears, hold key organisational posts, and are now eyeing seats in the Rajya Sabha.
(The author is a veteran Delhi-based journalist and political analyst)
